320  
FXHW01 KWNH 011214  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
814 AM EDT WED NOV 01 2017  
 
VALID 00Z THU NOV 02 2017 - 00Z THU NOV 09 2017  
 
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY FOR  
THE NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER AND NORTH OF THE  
STATE WILL PUSH AWAY A DEEP UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE  
AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE  
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS SHORTLY AFTER THE START OF THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE RIDGING ALOFT TO PROMOTE RELATIVELY  
LIGHTER SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AND LOWER  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.00-1.25 INCHES LIKELY BY  
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER  
SIDE. AS A NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA DRIFTS  
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, EXPECT WINDS TO BE INITIALLY  
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON AVERAGE (MORE EASTERLY NEAR THE BIG ISLAND  
AND MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS) AND THEN BECOME  
MORE EASTERLY. TRADES WILL BECOME STRONGER DURING THE WEEKEND AND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG THOUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE  
TRACKS SOUTHWARD ALONG 150W LONGITUDE. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN  
SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A  
NORTHEAST PACIFIC SYSTEM FURTHER ERODES THE RIDGE. TOWARD THE END  
OF THE PERIOD GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO BRING LINGERING UPPER TROUGH  
ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS CLOSER TO THE AREA THAN MOST  
OTHER GUIDANCE.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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