486  
FXHW01 KWNH 031213  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
812 AM EDT FRI NOV 03 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 04 2017 - 00Z SAT NOV 11 2017  
 
REX BLOCK PATTERN WITH AN AXIS WELL WEST OF HAWAII NORTH TO ALASKA  
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE FLOW  
PATTERN ACROSS HAWAI'I RELATIVELY STABLE. UPPER RIDGING CENTERED  
OVERHEAD IS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO NEXT  
WEEK, ALTHOUGH, WEAKLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST BY  
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH  
THE NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING HIGH INITIALLY CENTERED  
WELL NORTHEAST OF HAWAI'I WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY WEAKENING  
EASTERLIES, FROM 20 KT TODAY TO 10-15 KT BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WHEN GUIDANCE  
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ORIGINATING IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC  
ADVECTING ACROSS HAWAI'I. THEREFORE, EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE  
GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD TERRAIN, BECOMING EVEN MORE  
SPARSE BY NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE  
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK WILL FORCE A COLD  
FRONT TOWARD THE ISLANDS, ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE  
FRONT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  
 
RYAN  
 

 
 
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