381  
FXUS10 KWNH 031616  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1215 PM EDT FRI NOV 03 2017  
 
VALID NOV 03/1200 UTC THRU NOV 07/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
WHILE THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES HERE, THE  
DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL AND WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLE  
ENVELOPE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 00Z UKMET, 00Z  
CANADIAN, AND 00Z ECMWF IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
SHORTWAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EAST/MID-SOUTH MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-CANADIAN BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS A TOUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ALOFT  
WHICH LED TO GREATER FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE EAST AND  
MID-SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE  
-- AN OCCASIONAL BIAS. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z  
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z  
UKMET, 12Z GFS, AND 12Z NAM IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING BY FLORIDA SATURDAY/SUNDAY  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND TODAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, AND  
00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
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WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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