851  
FXUS10 KWNH 031826  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
225 PM EDT FRI NOV 03 2017  
 
VALID NOV 03/1200 UTC THRU NOV 07/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST MONDAY  
SHORTWAVE/FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EAST/MID-SOUTH MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
WHILE THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES WITH BOTH SYSTEMS,  
THE DIFFERENCES ARE SMALL AND WITHIN THE SCOPE OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLE  
ENVELOPE. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 12Z UKMET, 12Z  
CANADIAN, AND 12Z ECMWF IS ADVISED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING BY FLORIDA SATURDAY/SUNDAY  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT  
SHORTWAVE MOVING BY NEW ENGLAND TODAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z GFS, 12Z NAM, 12Z UKMET, 12Z CANADIAN, AND  
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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