778  
FXUS10 KWNH 041625  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1225 PM EDT SAT NOV 04 2017  
 
VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 08/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING BY FLORIDA SAT/SUN  
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY  
...SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM MT TODAY INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY MORNING  
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN PLAINS...  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, 00Z CANADIAN, 12Z GFS, AND  
12Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WEST  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE SLOW OUTLIERS WITH THIS  
SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AS A STRONG UPSTREAM  
RIDGE EXISTS, A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION SHOULD WORK OUT FINE,  
WHICH MATCHES THE CURRENT CONSENSUS, 06Z GEFS MEAN BEST, AND 09Z  
SREF MEAN THE BEST. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET,  
12Z GFS, AND 12Z NAM IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page