067  
FXHW01 KWNH 081222  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
722 AM EST WED NOV 08 2017  
 
VALID 00Z THU NOV 09 2017 - 00Z THU NOV 16 2017  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE THAT WEAKENING UPPER RIDGING  
OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY TROUGHING  
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, NUDGING WESTWARD PAST 150W. THIS  
SUPPORTS A FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY  
LIGHT WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS VIA MODEST TRADES. PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL NEXT  
WEEK WHEN AN INCREASE IS LIKELY. THIS SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE TO  
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS (BIG ISLAND AND MAUI) AS  
WELL AS FAVORED WINDWARD AREAS. 00 ECMWF WAS ON THE DEEPER SIDE OF  
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 30N/150W NEXT  
TUESDAY BUT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHICH SHOWS THE  
POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER LOW IN GENERALLY THE SAME AREA.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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