042  
FXHW01 KWNH 101231  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
730 AM EST FRI NOV 10 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 11 2017 - 00Z SAT NOV 18 2017  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS SHOWS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LATEST  
GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CLUSTER WELL OVER THE NEXT  
WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES  
TO TRACK THE SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE  
WEEKEND AS LEAD WEAKENED ISLAND TRADES INCREASINGLY ADVECT  
DEEPENED MOISTURE INTO THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO FUEL SOME ENHANCED  
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH/LOW IS SLATED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD/EAST  
OF THE BIG ISLAND NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
STRONGLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS MAY ALLOW  
INFUSION OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDE  
SYSTEM WHOSE FURTHER DIGGING AND AMPLIFICATION ACTS TO STEADILY  
DECREASE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS OVER THE STATE NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE  
OF SYSTEM PASSAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF  
THE STATE NEXT WEEK IN THIS PATTERN WILL MEANWHILE ACT TO INCREASE  
ISLAND TRADES TO MODERATE THEN BRISK LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK, IN A  
PATTERN WITH ONLY LIMITED WINDWARD TERRAIN PRECIPITAION.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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