113  
FXHW01 KWNH 111227  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
726 AM EST SAT NOV 11 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SUN NOV 12 2017 - 00Z SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE  
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW JUST NORTHWEST OF THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CLUSTER WELL OVER  
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE DESPITE  
TRANSITIONAL MULTI-STREAM AMPLIFIED FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, A MODEL AND  
ENSEMBLE COMPOSITE SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. GUIDANCE REASONABLY  
AGREES TO PROGRESS THE WEATHER FOCUSING SOUTHERN STREAM FEATURE  
GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAKENED LEAD ISLAND TRADES  
INCREASINGLY ADVECT DEEPENED MOISTURE INTO THE STATE IN RESPONSE  
TO FUEL SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS. THE TROUGH/LOW AND ASSOCIATED  
HEIGHT FALLS ARE SLATED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER/EAST OF THE  
STATE NEXT WEEK AS AN AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH  
STRONGLY BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS ALLOWS  
INFUSION OF SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE LOWER LATITUDES  
WHOSE FURTHER DIGGING AND AMPLIFICATION ACTS TO STEADILY DECREASE  
MOISTURE AND SHOWERS STATEWIDE LATER NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF  
SYSTEM PASSAGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE  
STATE IN THIS PATTERN WILL MEANWHILE ACT TO INCREASE ISLAND TRADES  
TO MODERATE THEN BRISK LEVELS MID-LATE WEEK, IN A PATTERN WITH  
ONLY LIMITED WINDWARD TERRAIN SHOWERS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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