498  
FXHW01 KWNH 121231  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
730 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2017  
 
VALID 00Z MON NOV 13 2017 - 00Z MON NOV 20 2017  
 
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING ALOFT IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TODAY. THIS HAS ACTED TO DESTABILIZE THE  
ATMOSPHERE AS WEAKENED LEAD TRADES WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE  
ADVECTS DEEPENED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. THIS HAS  
FUELED SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS AND LOCAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LINGERING  
ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATER TODAY WHERE COOLED  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAS PROMPTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR  
MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 12,000 FEET.  
 
MID-UPPER LEVEL REINFORCING NORTHERN STREAM HEIGHT FALLS DIG  
OVER/EAST OF THE STATE THIS WEEK AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
STRONGLY REBUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC IN A MORE BLOCKY  
PATTERN. THIS ACTS TO STEADILY DECREASE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS  
STATEWIDE AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND SETTLES TO  
THE NORTH OF THE STATE. IN THIS PATTERN, EXPECT MODERATE THEN  
BRISK TRADES WITH ONLY LIMITED WINDWARD TERRAIN SHOWERS.  
 
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CLUSTER WELL OVER THE NEXT WEEK,  
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. CONSIDERING FLOW AMPLITUDE  
UPSTREAM, SUGGEST A COMPOSITE OF THE VERY WELL CLUSTERED 06 UTC  
GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NAVGEM WHOSE HIGHER RESOLUTION  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE OFFERS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH OVER/EAST OF THE ISLANDS THAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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