096  
FXUS10 KWNH 160422  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1122 PM EST WED NOV 15 2017  
 
VALID NOV 16/0000 UTC THRU NOV 19/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
CYCLONE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN BLEND; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE 12Z UKMET/00Z NAM ARE SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A SHARPER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD  
UPSTREAM RIDGE, A LESS SHARP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MAKES THE MOST  
SENSE. THIS BEST FITS THE 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF/00Z GFS  
SOLUTIONS, A BLEND OF WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
CYCLONE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY  
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY/FRIDAY  
SYSTEM LEAVING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, 00Z NAM, AND  
00Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page