230  
FXUS10 KWNH 160627  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
127 AM EST THU NOV 16 2017  
 
VALID NOV 16/0000 UTC THRU NOV 19/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
CYCLONE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE 00Z NAM IS SLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A SHARPER SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE FLOW PATTERN FEATURES A BROAD UPSTREAM  
RIDGE, A LESS SHARP DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MAKES THE MOST SENSE. THIS  
BEST FITS THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS SOLUTIONS,  
A BLEND OF WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
CYCLONE MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THURSDAY  
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA THURSDAY/FRIDAY  
SYSTEM LEAVING NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 00Z NAM, AND  
00Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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