027  
FXUS10 KWNH 190416  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1116 PM EST SAT NOV 18 2017  
 
VALID NOV 19/0000 UTC THRU NOV 22/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE YUKON INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-UKMET BLEND; CONFIDENCE ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
THE 12Z UKMET BECOMES SHARPER/SLOWER WITH THIS SHORTWAVE/POSSIBLE  
UPPER LOW THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FLOW  
WITH BROAD FEATURES, IMPLYING THE UKMET SOLUTION IS TOO  
SHARP/SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 00Z GFS,  
AND 00Z NAM APPEARS BEST, AND IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE  
CONFIDENCE.  
 
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF COAST  
SYSTEM LEAVING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY  
SHORTWAVES MOVING BY THE NORTHWEST MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND  
00Z NAM IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH  
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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