582  
FXUS10 KWNH 190624  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
124 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
VALID NOV 19/0000 UTC THRU NOV 22/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
RANGE FORECASTS.  
 
SYSTEM DROPPING FROM THE YUKON INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA  
LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING NEAR THE GULF COAST  
SYSTEM LEAVING NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY  
SHORTWAVES MOVING BY THE NORTHWEST MONDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLY SIMILAR WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 00Z GFS, AND  
00Z NAM IS PREFERRED TO DEAL WITH ANY LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH  
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
ROTH  

 
 
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