316  
FXHW01 KWNH 241214  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
714 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 25 2017 - 00Z SAT DEC 02 2017  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND PERHAPS  
MAUI...  
 
UPPER HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HAWAI'I WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE  
WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM, ALLOWING TROUGHING TO SETTLE OVER THE  
REGION OVER THE REGION. THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE  
REGION WILL BE REINFORCED THIS WEEKEND AND SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD  
THEN EASTWARD ALONG 33N NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY/WINDY  
TRADES INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO SCATTERED WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY SOME SPILLOVER TO LEEWARD AREAS POSSIBLE AS  
THE OVERALL AIR MASS REMAINS DRY.  
 
NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH OR WEAKLY CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH  
WESTWARD, ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO CREEP NORTHWARD. THIS  
WILL INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE  
ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE WAVERED ON HOW MUCH TO INCREASE  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BUT THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF WAS MORE IN  
LINE WITH THE MULTI-CENTER ENSEMBLE MEAN WHEREAS THE GFS SHOWED  
LOWER PW VALUES. IN ADDITION, THE 00Z GEFS M-CLIMATE QPF  
PERCENTILES WERE AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST  
ISLANDS NEXT WED-FRI, SO THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AT LEAST SOME  
MODEST TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG  
ISLAND AND MAUI.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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