725  
FXHW01 KWNH 291230  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
730 AM EST WED NOV 29 2017  
 
VALID 00Z THU NOV 30 2017 - 00Z THU DEC 07 2017  
   
..HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL  
REINFORCE A PATTERN SUPPORTING BREEZY/WINDY TRADES THIS WEEK. DEEP  
TROPICAL MOISTURE BANDED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL  
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MID-UPPER  
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS DIGS JUST TO  
THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THIS WILL INDUCE LEAD  
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH THE STATE WHOSE SOUTHEASTWARD  
VEERED TRADES INCREASINGLY TAP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THIS  
WOULD FUEL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD  
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AND A WINTER  
STORM ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA LOA AND  
MAUNA KEA FOR LINGERING SNOW. THE THREAT MAY DIMINISH OVER THE  
WEEKEND WITH LEAD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SECOND AND MORE AMPLIFIED  
MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE ALONG/NORTH OF THE STATE  
NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL TRACK WILL FURTHER  
FILTER DRIER AIR ACROSS THE STATE IN A PATTERN WITH DISRUPTED  
TRADES. MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY HAS  
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, BOLSTERING  
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN A WELL SUPPORTED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE  
SOLUTION.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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