368  
FXHW01 KWNH 051213  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
712 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2017  
 
VALID 00Z WED DEC 06 2017 - 00Z WED DEC 13 2017  
 
INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT EAST-CENTRAL  
PACIFIC TROUGH ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF APPROACHING/PASSING  
FRONTS. GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH IMPORTANT  
FEATURES RELATIVE TO TYPICAL FORECAST ERROR AT THE TIME FRAME OF  
INTEREST.  
 
THE FIRST FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS WITH  
RELATIVELY LIGHT RAINFALL. IN ITS WAKE STRONG  
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TREND LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE  
IN DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE  
WEST-NORTHWEST EXTENDS A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS. EXPECT  
THE NEXT FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT/SCATTERED RAINFALL TO APPROACH  
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT LIKELY NOT REACH ANY FARTHER  
SOUTH THAN THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS. IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WILL  
BE A STRONGER FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND, AGAIN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT  
RAINFALL IN SPITE OF MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER SUPPORT. WITH SOME  
TYPICAL MODEL SPREAD FOR EXACT LOCATION, THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL  
IN THE VICINITY OF THE BIG ISLAND BY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE  
LAST FRONT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REACHING THE STATE NEXT TUESDAY,  
AND GENERALLY AGREEING THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE/ORGANIZED RAINFALL THAN THE PRECEDING  
FRONTS. CURRENT SIGNALS ARE THAT RAINFALL MAY STILL NOT BE HEAVY  
IN ABSOLUTE TERMS THOUGH.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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