234  
FXHW01 KWNH 081216  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
715 AM EST MON JAN 08 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 09 2018 - 00Z TUE JAN 16 2018  
 
TODAY'S MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE FAIRLY WELL FOR THE OVERALL  
PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO  
WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A FRONT SUPPORTED BY A  
MODERATELY SHARP SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE  
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL AND EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH NEAR  
KAUAI MID-LATE WEEK BUT A RELATIVE LACK OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP  
ACCOMPANYING RAINFALL ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE  
BIG ISLAND MAY SEE SOMEWHAT MORE RAINFALL AROUND  
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE HELPS TO DRAW A POCKET OF  
MOISTURE/SHORTWAVE ENERGY CLOSE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  
AFTER THURSDAY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERLIES WILL  
LIKELY PUSH THE OVERALL COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND  
MOISTURE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND. UPPER TROUGHING NORTH  
OF THE AREA EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER  
RELATIVELY DRY FRONT CLOSE TO THE AREA AT THAT TIME. EXPECT THE  
FRONT TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM  
THE EAST SUNDAY-MONDAY. BY NEXT MONDAY THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT  
OVER THE EXACT LOCATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A RELATIVE  
MAJORITY OF MODELS/MEANS WOULD HAVE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST  
NORTH OF THE STATE, LEADING TO LIGHT-MODERATE TRADES. THE 00Z CMC  
IS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THUS YIELDING LIGHT LOW  
LEVEL FLOW. AT THIS TIME WOULD RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE  
NON-CMC SOLUTIONS.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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