907  
FXUS10 KWNH 091627  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1127 AM EST TUE JAN 09 2018  
 
VALID JAN 09/1200 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE ITS SHORT  
TERM FORECAST.  
 
 
SOUTHERN PLAINS-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS UPPER LOW/CYCLONE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: ECMWF/GFS/UKMET; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPERSION WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH DIGS  
THROUGH THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z NAM/00Z  
CANADIAN ARE MORE SOUTHERLY -- AS THEY TEND TO BE -- DESPITE AN  
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. WITH THE  
SUPPORT OF THE 06Z GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, SUPPORT  
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z UKMET, AND 12Z GFS WITH  
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
NORTHWEST-CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE/LOW THU-FRI  
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NW/NORTHERN PLAINS  
SYSTEM STREAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MI BY THU  
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER FL THROUGH THURSDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z UKMET, 12Z NAM, AND  
12Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
ROTH  
 
PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
PREVIOUS 500 MB FORECASTS AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  

 
 
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