328  
FXUS10 KWNH 091836  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
136 PM EST TUE JAN 09 2018  
 
VALID JAN 09/1200 UTC THRU JAN 13/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL PREFERENCES WITH CONFIDENCE INTERVALS  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT  
TERM FORECASTS.  
 
 
SOUTHERN PLAINS-SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS UPPER LOW/CYCLONE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM; CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVE  
 
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DISPERSION WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH DIGS  
THROUGH THE WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE 12Z NAM IS MORE  
SOUTHERLY -- AS IT TENDS TO BE -- DESPITE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE  
MOVING TOWARDS THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. WITH THE SUPPORT OF THE 12Z  
GEFS/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, SUPPORT A COMPROMISE OF  
THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, AND 12Z GFS WITH  
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
NORTHWEST-CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE/LOW THU-FRI  
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NW/NORTHERN PLAINS  
SYSTEM STREAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH MI BY THU  
UPPER LOW WEAKENING OVER FL THROUGH THURSDAY  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS. A  
COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF, 12Z CANADIAN, 12Z UKMET, 12Z NAM, AND  
12Z GFS IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.  
 
ROTH  
 
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