305  
FXHW01 KWNH 101216  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
716 AM EST WED JAN 10 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU JAN 11 2018 - 00Z THU JAN 18 2018  
 
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE WITH RESPECT TO  
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A COLD FRONT INITIALLY  
APPROACHING KAUAI WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TO A MERE TROUGH OVER THE  
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AREAS OF  
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL. AS THE SHARPENING UPPER SHORTWAVE  
SUPPORTING THIS FRONT CROSSES THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS  
AND INTERACTS WITH A WEAK UPPER FEATURE ALREADY NEAR THE BIG  
ISLAND, EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE/RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTWARD PROGRESSION  
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A DRIER TREND FRIDAY INTO THE  
WEEKEND. FROM NOW INTO THE WEEKEND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL  
LIKELY HAVE A GREATER THAN AVERAGE DEPENDENCE ON SEA/LAND BREEZE  
EFFECTS GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ISLANDS THE NEXT COUPLE  
DAYS AND A WEAK RIDGE TAKING ITS PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK  
AND RELATIVELY DRY FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN  
THE WEEKEND MAY JUST BARELY REACH THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS BEFORE  
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD/ACROSS THE STATE  
HELPS TO PUSH IT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS  
SHOWS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WITH A FARTHER  
NORTH AXIS BY NEXT MONDAY-WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MORE TYPICAL TRADE  
FLOW AND WINDWARD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS A  
FAIRLY GOOD SIGNAL THAT TRADES MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AROUND NEXT  
WEDNESDAY OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page