336  
FXHW01 KWNH 111211  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
711 AM EST THU JAN 11 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI JAN 12 2018 - 00Z FRI JAN 19 2018  
 
TODAY'S GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE OVERALL  
FORECAST, WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES INVOLVING PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY THE  
00Z GFS SHOWS THE GREATEST NORTHWARD EXTENT OF AN AREA OF ENHANCED  
MOISTURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE, WHILE THE 00Z GEFS MEAN  
AND 06Z GFS ARE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND DRIER 00Z  
ECMWF. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE 00Z ECMWF TENDS TO BE DRIER  
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS AS WELL. THE 00Z ECMWF REPRESENTED A DRIER  
ADJUSTMENT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN SO THE 00Z GEFS/06Z GFS OR ONLY A  
MODEST COMPROMISE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF LOOKS BEST AT THIS TIME.  
 
AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE STATE WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD  
WITH TIME. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A POCKET OF MOISTURE NEAR THE  
BIG ISLAND WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL  
IN ITS VICINITY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND A WEAK RIDGE WILL REPLACE A SURFACE TROUGH, WITH  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LIKELY ALLOWING FOR SEA BREEZES TO  
INFLUENCE ANY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. MODELS/MEANS  
ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING  
NORTHWARD BY MONDAY LEADING TO LIGHT-MODERATE TRADE FLOW AND MORE  
WINDWARD FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. THEN FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
CROSSING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY  
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND GENERATE BRISK/WINDY CONDITIONS WITH  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL TO STRAY INTO LEEWARD AREAS.  
 
RAUSCH  
 

 
 
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