171  
FXHW01 KWNH 161214  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
714 AM EST TUE JAN 16 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED JAN 17 2018 - 00Z WED JAN 24 2018  
 
UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR MOST OF THE  
NEXT SEVEN DAYS OVER HAWAI'I AS ONE TROUGH TO THE NORTH SLIDES  
EASTWARD THIS WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY PUSH THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY  
WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEFLY ENHANCED BUT GENERALLY LIMITED SHOWER  
ACTIVITY BUT ENSEMBLES SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER  
VALUES FROM FRIDAY ONWARD AS A SFC HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALONG 35N.  
THIS INCREASE IN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TRADES OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DECREASE STARTING THIS WEEKEND. WINDWARD AND  
MAUKA SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED (WITH SOME LEEWARD SPILLOVER) OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
IN DIGGING A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND THE  
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LOW DIPPING BELOW 40N NEAR  
170W. THIS WILL ACT TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS HAWAI'I BUT MAINTAIN A  
WINDWARD TRADE PATTERN WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SHOWERS.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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