350  
FXHW01 KWNH 191230  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
729 AM EST FRI JAN 19 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 20 2018 - 00Z SAT JAN 27 2018  
 
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT BRISK ISLAND TRADES BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS  
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. THE PATTERN  
REMAINS MAINLY DRY UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND  
HEIGHT FALL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEAKENS THIS RIDGE OVER THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRADE FLOW DECREASES TO MODERATE  
LEVELS AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN STATEWIDE THIS PERIOD.  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER MORE VARIANCE AND UNCERTAINTY AT  
LONGER TIME FRAMES, BUT GENERALLY AGREES TO PROGRESS AN AMPLIFIED  
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF  
THE STATE IN THE WEDNESDAY-NEXT FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. A FAVORED  
COMPOSITE OF BEST CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE 06 UTC GFS/GEFS MEAN  
AND 00 UTC ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OFFERS POTENTIAL FOR A  
PRECIPITATION FOCUSING TRAILING COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE WESTERN  
ISLANDS AS VEERING LEAD TRADES RETURN MOISTURE OVER THE STATE.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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