428  
FXHW01 KWNH 211231  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
730 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON JAN 22 2018 - 00Z MON JAN 29 2018  
 
GUIDANCE REASONABLY AGREES IN SHOWING A TRANSITIONAL FLOW PATTERN  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST  
TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING  
TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TRADES AND  
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FUEL  
INCREASINGLY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SEEMS  
SUPPORTED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE TO TRACK AN AMPLIFIED UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AND DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE  
MID-LATE WEEK AS LEAD TRADES VEER AND WEAKEN. A FAVORED GUIDANCE  
COMPOSITE BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE ISLANDS HEADING INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND AND UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS MAY COMBINE  
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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