251  
FXHW01 KWNH 221218  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
717 AM EST MON JAN 22 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE JAN 23 2018 - 00Z TUE JAN 30 2018  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLY AGREE IN SHOWING A TRANSITIONAL  
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK SHORTWAVES APPROACH  
FROM THE WEST TO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE  
TRADES AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
FUEL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST  
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.  
 
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES TO TRACK AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
AND DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE MID-LATE WEEK  
AS LEAD TRADES VEER AND WEAKEN. A FAVORED GUIDANCE COMPOSITE  
BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO THE ISLANDS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS  
UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS COMBINE WITH LINGERING  
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS. EXPECT A DRIER PATTERN  
WILL USHER IN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF SYSTEM PASSAGE.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page