987  
FXHW01 KWNH 241229  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
728 AM EST WED JAN 24 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU JAN 25 2018 - 00Z THU FEB 01 2018  
 
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK  
WHILE STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SLIDES  
EASTWARD AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE  
NORTHWEST. THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS REMAIN ON THE AMPLIFIED SIDE  
OF MODEL SPREAD WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALIGNING OVER HAWAII THIS  
WEEKEND, BUT OVERALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH  
SHOULD HELP KEEP A SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP EAST OF THE ISLANDS,  
EAST OF THE ISLANDS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN OUTLYING 00Z CMC  
WHICH HAS A FARTHER WEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT ALLOWS THE SURFACE  
LOW AND IT'S ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO CROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY). LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN  
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE  
NORTHWEST WILL REACH THE ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
GERHARDT  
 

 
 
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