757  
FXHW01 KWNH 311225  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
725 AM EST WED JAN 31 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU FEB 01 2018 - 00Z THU FEB 08 2018  
 
AN EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT  
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, FROM  
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE.  
MULTIPLE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS  
ANOMALOUS FEATURE, WHICH WILL KEEP A FRONTAL ZONE WAVERING ACROSS  
HAWAII ALONG WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS, MULTIPLE STREAMS OF 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL  
STRETCH FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE CHAIN,  
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS ACTIVITY. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,  
THIS ZONE OF DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD UNIFIED AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT AND MAY PRODUCE ORGANIZED RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHWESTERN  
ISLANDS OR NI'IHAU AND KAUAI. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, THIS ENTIRE  
FRONTAL ZONE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE  
ISLANDS, AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC BEGINS TO ADVANCE  
DOWNSTREAM. THIS WILL DEFINITELY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN FROM  
OAHU TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SOME OF THESE RAINS, OVER THE  
WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AND  
PRODUCE RUNOFF ISSUES. FINALLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THIS  
ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE AND MOISTURE WILL CLEAR THE STATE, BASICALLY  
IN THE WAKE OF AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT  
SHOW A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF SPREAD, WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE IN THE  
UPCOMING PATTERN AND DETAILS.  
 
MUSHER  
 

 
 
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