395  
FXHW01 KWNH 021226  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
725 AM EST FRI FEB 02 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 03 2018 - 00Z SAT FEB 10 2018  
   
..HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH THE WEEKEND
 
 
VERY DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE (500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
AROUND -4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS) WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY  
WITH NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEHIND IT BY THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS  
WILL VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN NORTHERLY TO  
NORTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  
 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OLD SURFACE BOUNDARIES (MOISTURE AXES) TO THE  
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND THE CONTINUED RISK OF MODEST TO LOCALLY  
HEAVIER RAIN FOR OAHU/KAUAI/NI'IHAU. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES OR +2 TO +3 STANDARD  
DEVIATIONS. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT  
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHWESTERNMOST  
ISLANDS EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND THEN TO THE EAST OF  
THE BIG ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SLOWLY TAKES  
THE UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK, MAINTAINING A SHOWERY  
AND BREEZY PATTERN FOR THE ISLANDS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER  
ANOMALIES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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