447  
FXHW01 KWNH 041225  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
725 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2018  
 
VALID 00Z MON FEB 05 2018 - 00Z MON FEB 12 2018  
   
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEK
 
 
DEEP TROUGHING THAT HAD BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE DATELINE WILL  
MOVE EASTWARD AND CARRY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  
STARTING EARLY MONDAY OVER KAUAI AND NI'IHAU. A COUPLE SURFACE  
WAVES (EVEN UP THROUGH 850-800MB) FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT  
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ISLANDS AS THE COLD FRONT  
WORKS ITS WAY DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WITH  
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (1.50-1.75" PRECIPITABLE  
WATER OR ABOUT +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS) THE HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED  
CONVECTION WILL MEAN FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SNOW AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.  
 
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW THE COLD FRONT EXITING PAST THE BIG ISLAND  
LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY  
SWINGS THROUGH. TIMING WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE  
EMBEDDED SURFACE WAVES. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN  
THE WAKE OF THE FROPA AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY  
BEHIND THE FRONT THEN NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. A SHOWERY AND  
BREEZY PATTERN FOR THE ISLANDS WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE WEEK INTO  
NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY UNDER ONE  
INCH. 00Z GFS/ECMWF BLENDED SOLUTION SHOULD SUFFICE THROUGH THE  
PERIOD., WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
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