613  
FXHW01 KWNH 061230  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
729 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED FEB 07 2018 - 00Z WED FEB 14 2018  
 
...A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SUMMIT SNOW THREAT CONTINUES  
TODAY...  
 
A WAVY AND DEEP MOISTURE POOLING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE  
SLOWLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED HEAVIER/STEADIER RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS PER  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR/OBSERVATIONS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND  
FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE STATE. COLD  
AIR ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS HEAVY SNOW AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS WHERE  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN SHOWING SOME REINFORCEMENT OF THE  
SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY.THIS WILL ALLOW SOME ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE  
STATE AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS PAST THE BIG ISLAND, BUT THE DEEPEST  
MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS  
THROUGH CLOSES OFF.  
 
WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN  
A PERIOD OF LIMITED SHOWERS AND BREEZY FLOW FOR THE ISLANDS LATER  
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY  
UNDER ONE INCH.  
 
FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT IN GENERAL THAT YET ANOTHER AMPLIFIED  
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE  
STATE, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A CLOSED LOW. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE  
GUIDANCE COMPOSITE WITHOUT THE CLOSED LOW WOULD ALLOW A RETURN OF  
LEAD DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE STATE AND RENEW THE THREAT FOR  
HEAVIER RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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