709  
FXHW01 KWNH 071230  
PMDHI  
 
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
730 AM EST WED FEB 07 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU FEB 08 2018 - 00Z THU FEB 15 2018  
 
...A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING AND SUMMIT SNOW THREAT CONTINUES  
TODAY...  
 
SHOWERS WITH SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND A  
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STATE. COLD AIR ALOFT  
CONTINUES TO ALSO SUPPORT WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE BIG ISLAND  
SUMMITS. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE TO SHOW SOME REINFORCEMENT OF  
THE SUPPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THURSDAY. DEEPER  
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE AS THE TROUGH SLIDES  
THROUGH AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW. NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE  
SYSTEM USHER IN A PATTERN WITH MUCH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE/SHOWERS  
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY-MID  
NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS  
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE STATE, POSSIBLY LEADING TO A CLOSED LOW.  
RECENT GFS RUNS SETTLE A DEEP CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE STATE,  
BUT RECENT ECMWF/UKMET RUNS REMAIN MUCH LESS DIGGY WITH SUPPORTING  
ENERGY, SURFACE SYSTEM RESPONSE, AND HEAVIEST MOISTURE/RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL. WHILE THE GFS IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE GEFS/ECMWF  
ENSEMBLES ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS, THERE ARE A DECENT AMOUNT OF  
SUPPORTING MEMBERS. THE SHARP WAVELENGTH OF THE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM  
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR EITHER SCENARIO, SO  
THERE REMAINS AN UNCERTAIN THREAT FOR THE RETURN OF LEAD DEEPER  
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FUEL A RENEWED  
ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINS/THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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