676  
FXUS10 KWNH 041934  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
234 PM EST MON NOV 04 2019  
 
VALID NOV 04/1200 UTC THRU NOV 08/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
   
..12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
...OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH 08.00Z  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
19Z UPDATE: NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE REST OF THE  
12Z GUIDANCE NOW AVAILABLE. THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE STILL IS A BIT  
MORE PROGRESSIVE SHEARING OUT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST  
U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BUT THE SPREAD IS LOWERED  
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. BY 84 HOURS, THERE IS NOT TOO MUCH  
DIFFERENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, SHOWING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH  
THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE WESTERN U.S. THE  
WPC PREFERENCE FOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND REMAINS.  
 
---PREVIOUS DISCUSSION---  
OVERALL, MODEL AGREEMENT IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE CONUS THROUGH  
THE NEXT 84 HOURS (08.00Z) WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING  
THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY/MID PART OF THE WEEK.  
CURRENTLY, A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST, DRIFTING EASTWARD SLOWLY. IN THE NEXT  
48 HOURS, THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT AND OPEN  
UP AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING.  
WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT, THERE  
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES TO NOTE. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO BE THE  
SLOWER, MORE CLOSED SOLUTION WHILE THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE IS A BIT  
MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH 60 HOURS.  
 
AS SOME OF THIS ENERGY BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM  
TROUGH, SOME AMPLIFICATION AND NEGATIVE TILTING COMBINED WITH  
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS FAVORS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY  
OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THE END (BUT MORE SO JUST BEYOND THE  
FORECAST PERIOD). AS SUCH, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CAN BE EMPLOYED  
WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST  
PERIOD ACROSS THE CONUS.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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