357  
FXUS10 KWNH 200435  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1134 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2019  
 
VALID NOV 20/0000 UTC THRU NOV 23/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: NON-CMC BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH  
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND MAJOR FEATURES, AND SIMILAR  
PLACEMENT OF QPF AREAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SPREAD THAT  
SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECTS QPF EXISTS WITH THE EJECTING WAVE OVER THE  
CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z CMC IS LESS  
AMPLIFIED, FURTHER NORTH WITH ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM, AND  
FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS. THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWARD  
DISPLACEMENT OF ITS QPF AXIS, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF MODELS ARE IN  
BETTER AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THE CMC IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE MODEL  
PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME.  
 
WHILE THERE ARE STILL DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE REMAINING  
MODELS, THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACT THE REGION OF  
HIGHEST QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY -- FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE PREFERENCE  
IS FOR A MULTI-MODEL BLEND WITHOUT INCLUDING THE 12Z CMC.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
LAMERS  
 

 
 
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