552  
FXUS10 KWNH 021616  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1115 AM EST MON DEC 02 2019  
 
VALID DEC 02/1200 UTC THRU DEC 06/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
   
..OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE  
 
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST  
U.S. IS WELL AGREED UPON WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH  
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ANY MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE  
SMALLER SCALE AND LIKELY DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. OTHER  
NOTABLE FEATURES OF INTEREST IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS INCLUDE ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT  
LAKES THROUGH TUESDAY THAT WILL REINFORCE THE LARGE SCALE  
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK. HERE, MODELS ARE  
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THOUGH THE 12Z GFS IS A BIT FLATTER WITH  
THE SHORTWAVES BY THURSDAY AND THEREFORE FASTER THAN THE REST OF  
THE GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF/CMC ARE ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE  
ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET AND THE NAM TO SOME DEGREE OFFER A  
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. OUT WEST, A CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL DROP SOUTHWARD AND THEN MOVE INLAND BY 48-60  
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THROUGH 60 HOURS, THERE IS  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE SETUP THOUGH BETWEEN  
60-84 HOURS AS THE WAVE EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS,  
THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. THE GFS/NAM OFFER A MORE  
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ECMWF WOULD BE A  
GOOD CONSENSUS APPROACH AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WEST  
COAST SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY THE END OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD /THURSDAY NIGHT/ AND AT THIS POINT, MODEL  
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GIVEN THE RELATIVE GOOD  
MODEL AGREEMENTS (OUTSIDE TYPICAL MODEL BIASES SEEN), A GENERAL  
MODEL BLEND WOULD SUFFICE FOR THE LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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