563
FXUS10 KWNH 101614
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1113 AM EST MON FEB 10 2020
VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z GFS/NAM EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES & CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ISSUES WHICH
DEGRADE THEIR FORECASTS.
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WED/THU
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST MON/TUE & SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 12Z GFS, WHILE TRYING TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM OUT/OPEN THE SYSTEM
UP ALOFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH, SOMEHOW
STRENGTHENS 500 HPA VORTICITY WITHIN WHAT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE A
WEAKENING/ELONGATING SYSTEM. THIS LURES THE GFS UPPER TROUGH IN
THE GREAT LAKES WED/THU EASTWARD/QUICKER DESPITE A STRONGER AND
SLOWER MID-LEVEL RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF
CANADA. WOULD LEAN AWAY FROM THE 12Z GFS WITH THESE SYSTEMS WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER 48
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ARE WELL WITHIN THE NOISE WITH
OTHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER 48. PREFER A COMPROMISE OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THERE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.HTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
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