436
FXUS10 KWNH 141650
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1249 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2020
VALID JUL 14/1200 UTC THRU JUL 18/0000 UTC
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE U.S. MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE MODELS SHOW SIMILARLY WITH THIS SYSTEM. ANY DIFFERENCES, WHICH
CORRESPOND TO A DEPARTING OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF
NOVA SCOTIA, APPEAR ONCE THIS SYSTEM'S IMPACTS HAVE LEFT THE
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, A GENERAL MODEL BLEND CAN STILL BE USED.
...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS...14/00Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, A
CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND GREAT
PLAINS. WITH THE 14/12Z GFS MASS FIELDS ALOFT MAINTAINING A HIGH
DEGREE OF CONTINUITY, DIFFERENCES RELATED TO A SHORTWAVE TRACKING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY REMAIN--THE GFS BEING
ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. STILL THINK THAT 14/12Z GFS,
14/00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO EACH OTHER TO
PREFER A BLEND OF THEM.
...CUT OFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY MORNING AND
PROGRESSIVE TROUGH CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON 14/00Z UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 700-500
MB LOW CLOSING OFF BY MID-WEEK OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
RETROGRADING OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT, ALBEIT MINOR AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES,
WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS INTO THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A GENERAL MODEL BLEND REPRESENTS BOTH SYSTEMS ALONG THE
WEST COAST WELL.
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML
THIS PRODUCT WILL TERMINATE AUGUST 15, 2020:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/NOTIFICATION/PDF2/SCN20-58PMDHMD_TERMINATION.
OTTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page