520  
FXUS10 KWNH 240451  
PMDHMD  
 
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1250 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020  
 
VALID JUL 24/0000 UTC THRU JUL 27/1200 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMSDM) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
00Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
 
...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TRACKING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND...  
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL BLEND  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE  
 
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK THROUGH  
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT LEADING  
AT THE SURFACE AND EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AS THIS  
ENERGY REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND, IT WILL  
PHASE WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY LIFTING THROUGH THE FRONT  
RANGE AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE TROUGHING  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE LATEST MODELS SHOW  
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION WITH JUST MINOR SPEED  
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BUT A GENERAL MODEL BLEND SHOULD  
SUFFICE.  
 
   
..TROPICAL STORM HANNA
 
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~  
PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST  
BEST MODEL PROXY: 12Z ECMWF/CMC/UKMET  
CONFIDENCE: REFER TO NHC PRODUCTS  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT BECAME TROPICAL STORM HANNA AT 03Z IN  
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM  
AS IT HEADS WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST. THE  
LATEST TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND THE BEST MODEL  
PROXY FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 12Z  
ECMWF/CMC/UKMET. FOR THE LATEST OFFICIAL GUIDANCE, SEE THE MOST  
RECENT ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
 
MODEL TRENDS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML  
500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML  
 
THIS PRODUCT WILL TERMINATE AUGUST 15, 2020:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/NOTIFICATION/PDF2/SCN20-58PMDHMD_TERMINATION.  
PDF  
 
TAYLOR  
 

 
 
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