795  
ACUS11 KWNS 121811  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 121811  
TXZ000-121945-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0111 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...TX BIG COUNTRY  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 121811Z - 121945Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS ACROSS THE TX BIG COUNTRY.  
 
DISCUSSION...RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
EXTENDING FROM 0F2 (IN MONTAGUE COUNTY) SOUTHWESTWARD TO DYS (IN  
TAYLOR COUNTY) AND THEN BACK WESTWARD TO THE LINE OF STORMS MOVING  
THROUGH NOLAN AND FISHER COUNTIES. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOWED SOME  
BRIEF INTENSIFICATION AS IT INTERACTED WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SWW  
REPORTED A GUST OF 48 KT. ZDR TRENDS IN THE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THE  
STRONGEST UPDRAFT IN THE LINE IS MOVING INTO JONES COUNTY AND  
CONTINUED PROPAGATION NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
ANTICIPATED.  
 
HOWEVER, SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MORE  
EASTWARD AND WITH THE TREND OF OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT INTENSIFICATION  
LIKELY PERSISTING AS THE LINE OF STORMS INTERACTS WITH THE CELLS  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. GENERALLY WARM AND MOIST  
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE  
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS  
EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED  
CLOSELY.  
 
..MOSIER/GUYER.. 08/12/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...  
 
LAT...LON 32050049 32600037 33129960 33199850 32419840 31969918  
31869983 32050049  
 
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