844  
ACUS11 KWNS 121936  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 121936  
SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-122130-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0236 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN ND...CENTRAL SD...CENTRAL AND WESTERN  
NE  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 121936Z - 122130Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITH AN  
ACCOMPANYING HAIL/WIND RISK WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE  
WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONSIDERED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THIS AREA.  
 
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A CLUSTER OF  
STORMS WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL DAKOTAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AGITATED  
CUMULUS FIELD OVER CENTRAL SD WITH THE CUMULUS FIELD EXTENDING SOUTH  
INTO THE NE SANDHILLS WHERE IT REMAINS CAPPED. SURFACE STREAMLINE  
ANALYSIS IMPLIES THE GREATEST AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED OVER  
CENTRAL SD NEAR THE MO RIVER AND NEAR THE WY/NE BORDER.  
 
A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAKKEN REGION OF MT/ND WILL SLOWLY MEANDER  
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO  
HEAT/DESTABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ERODES, THE  
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AREAS FOR STORM  
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AND A HAIL/WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO EVENTUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP  
FARTHER EAST IN CENTRAL NE LATER TODAY WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE.  
 
..SMITH/GUYER.. 08/12/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...  
 
LAT...LON 41440372 42520368 46090071 46089915 45369822 43879845  
41600043 41030290 41440372  
 
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