091  
ACUS01 KWNS 041940  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 041939  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0239 PM CDT SAT NOV 04 2017  
 
VALID 042000Z - 051200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS MINIMAL ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING GENERAL THUNDER  
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CONVECTIVE AND NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.  
LATE TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A WARM-ADVECTION  
REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND OHIO. AN ISOLATED CELL OR TWO MAY  
BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HAIL, OWING TO ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND  
MODEST MID-LEVEL BUOYANCY. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE THREAT STILL APPEARS  
TOO LOW FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  
 
..PICCA.. 11/04/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SAT NOV 04 2017/  
   
..MS/OH/TN VALLEYS
 
 
FAST ZONAL FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY, WHILE A LARGE  
UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN AREA OF  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE MS/OH/TN VALLEYS AND A GRADUALLY  
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR TODAY, BUT  
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AFTER MIDNIGHT, A MORE FOCUSED AREA  
OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM SOUTHERN IL INTO PARTS OF  
IN/OH. WHILE PARAMETERS SUGGEST SOME LOW CONCERN FOR HAIL OR GUSTY  
WINDS IN THE STRONGEST CELLS, THE RISK DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT  
FOR INCLUSION OF A MRGL RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page