143  
ACUS01 KWNS 051616  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 051615  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1015 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z  
 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF  
IL...IN...AND OH...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS  
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MS  
VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT.  
   
..IN/OH/PA
 
 
HAVE EXPANDED THE EHH RISK AREA EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL  
AND EASTERN OH. TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SUGGEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION, WITH  
12Z CAM SOLUTIONS INDICATING ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL LOW  
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR, PROMOTING A SQUALL LINE WITH  
EMBEDDED BOWING/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND  
ISOLATED TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN ANY SUPERCELLS  
THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH AS  
THE STORMS MOVE INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER  
WESTERN PA.  
   
..IL/IN
 
 
ANOTHER AREA OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SAGGING INTO PARTS OF MO/IL.  
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN NEAR THE STL  
AREA AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL INTO CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN IN. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE STRONGER IN THIS  
AREA COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTHEAST, PROMOTING A GREATER RISK OF  
LARGE (POSSIBLY VERY LARGE) HAIL. MODEL GUIDANCE ALONG SUGGESTS A  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THIS AREA,  
WITH A FEW TORNADOES EXPECTED. EVENTUALLY, THESE STORMS WILL ALSO  
CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THEY BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE OH  
RIVER.  
 
..HART/COOK.. 11/05/2017  
 

 
 
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