130  
ACUS11 KWNS 051629  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 051629  
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051800-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1029 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OH  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE  
 
VALID 051629Z - 051800Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS (50-65 MPH) ARE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY  
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE (I-80/90 CORRIDOR) AND  
APPROACHING CLEVELAND THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A  
STRENGTHENING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST IN AND A  
TRANSITIONING FROM CELLULAR TO EMBEDDED CELLULAR. NORTHWEST OH IS  
LOCATED IN A WARM FRONTAL ZONE WITH LOWER-MID 60S DEGREES F  
DEWPOINTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE MOISTURE IS  
INCREASING ACROSS NORTHEAST OH (RISING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER  
60S THE PAST FEW HOURS). GRADUAL DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH THE  
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD WEAK BUOYANCY ACROSS THE LAKE ERIE  
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WIND PROFILE.  
 
EXPECTING FURTHER CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLUTION TO A BOWING SEGMENT OR  
TWO WITH THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO CORRESPONDINGLY INCREASE.  
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE SPATIAL SIZE OF A STRONG/SEVERE  
LINEAR BAND. IF IT BECOMES INCREASING PROBABLE A LARGER LINEAR BAND  
WILL MATERIALIZE (I.E., MORE THAN A 2-COUNTY-LENGTH BOWING SEGMENT),  
THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BECOME MORE STRONGLY  
CONSIDERED.  
 
..SMITH/HART.. 11/05/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...  
 
LAT...LON 41598480 41748339 41988057 41478055 41018129 41068497  
41138489 41598480  
 
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