393  
ACUS11 KWNS 051648  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 051648  
INZ000-ILZ000-051745-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1754  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1048 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY  
 
VALID 051648Z - 051745Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...A WARM-SECTOR SUPERCELL RISK IS INCREASING ACROSS THE  
LOWER WABASH VALLEY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON.  
 
DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES HAVE SHOWN THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUSTAINED/ROBUST UPDRAFT OVER LAWRENCE COUNTY, IL.  
THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER THIS INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM IS  
MOIST/ADEQUATELY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S  
DEGREES F AND TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S.  
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATED AROUND 750 J/KG MLCAPE AND KVWX  
VAD DATA SHOWS A STRONG WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT  
ROTATION. GIVEN THE LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SETUP, EXPECTING A GRADUAL  
INTENSIFICATION OF WARM SECTOR STORMS AND LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES  
POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A FEW TORNADOES.  
 
..SMITH/HART.. 11/05/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...  
 
LAT...LON 38758520 38548774 38598769 38878775 39308692 39578528  
39208483 38758520  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page