018  
ACUS11 KWNS 051709  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 051709  
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-051815-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1109 AM CST SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...MUCH OF  
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY  
 
VALID 051709Z - 051815Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION INCREASES AND JUST AHEAD OF A  
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT, WITH A RISK OF HAIL, WIND, AND A  
FEW TORNADOES. A WW IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
DISCUSSION AREA.  
 
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A GENERAL UPTICK  
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS  
OVER THE PAST HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT  
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2500 J/KG MUCAPE AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND  
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS FAVORABLE FOR STORM  
ORGANIZATION. CURRENT STORMS ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR DEC TO NEAR  
CMI ARE EXHIBITING LINEAR ORGANIZATION ALONG A COLD FRONT IN THAT  
VICINITY - AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY  
LIKELY OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
MAY EXHIBIT A MORE CELLULAR MODE, RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR LARGE  
HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE  
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.  
 
..COOK/HART.. 11/05/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...  
 
LAT...LON 40548744 40438807 39918923 39498981 38879067 38309060  
37738985 37818899 38378800 39108752 39728721 40368719  
40548744  
 
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