276  
ACUS01 KWNS 060051  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 060049  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0649 PM CST SUN NOV 05 2017  
 
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO OHIO AND  
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE  
SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD  
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A  
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE FROM PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING  
INTO TONIGHT.  
 
...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/WESTERN  
PENNSYLVANIA...  
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD  
FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI EXTENDING  
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. ONE  
CONTINUOUS LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND  
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RAP.  
ANOTHER CONTINUOUS LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL  
INDIANA INTO CENTRAL OHIO WHERE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER. BOTH  
LINE SEGMENTS ARE LOCATED IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE  
WSR-88D VWP AT WILMINGTON, OHIO AND LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY SHOW ABOUT  
50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH  
THE FASTER MOVING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR  
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES  
ASSOCIATED WITH ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE. THE TORNADO  
THREAT AND POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH  
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN  
INDIANA (SEE MCD 1763). FURTHER TO THE EAST IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA,  
A LINE SEGMENT WITH A COUPLE BOWING STRUCTURES IS ONGOING. THIS LINE  
SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL  
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS BEFORE MOVING INTO A STABLE AIRMASS  
(SEE MCD 1762).  
 
..BROYLES.. 11/06/2017  
 

 
 
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