001  
ACUS11 KWNS 061249  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 061249  
ARZ000-OKZ000-061445-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0649 AM CST MON NOV 06 2017  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL AR  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY  
 
VALID 061249Z - 061445Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH A  
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS  
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL AR.  
 
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A STRENGTHENING TREND  
WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION  
REGIME ACROSS NORTHWEST AR. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SAMPLED OVER 1500 J/KG  
OF MUCAPE AND RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY STRETCHES  
UP INTO NORTHERN AR. ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION IS ALSO STRONGLY  
SHEARED WITH THE 12Z LZK SOUNDING REPORTING OVER 40-45 KT OF  
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR,  
THE ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR  
TWO. LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MODEST BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR  
SUPPORTS STORM ROTATION AND SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE. GRADUAL WEAKENING  
IS EXPECTED AFTER A FEW HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AS A RESULT  
OF COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS  
WITH A WEAKENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
..MOSIER/EDWARDS.. 11/06/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...  
 
LAT...LON 36019416 36009339 35539165 35229148 34879148 34689168  
34699224 34969329 35149422 35339471 35609468 36019416  
 
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