996  
ACUS01 KWNS 061950  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 061949  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0149 PM CST MON NOV 06 2017  
 
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z  
 
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS  
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL FROM THE OZARKS TO  
PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING MARGINAL  
PROBABILITIES, PRIMARILY TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS WHERE  
SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER EAST, CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION  
ALOFT WILL FOSTER INCREASING CONVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND MODEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY SHOULD  
MAINTAIN SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL TO  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
 
..PICCA.. 11/06/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1008 AM CST MON NOV 06 2017/  
   
..MID MS VALLEY
 
 
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CONUS, WITH SEVERAL  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. A  
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN AR INTO TN. AMPLE ELEVATED  
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL  
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE MUCAPE ALOFT  
FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL  
THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL.  
   
..DELMARVA
 
 
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON  
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA  
REGION. HOWEVER, WEAK THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS AND VERY SPARSE  
THUNDERSTORMS IN 12Z CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS  
IS LOW ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE MRGL RISK.  
 

 
 
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