527  
ACUS01 KWNS 071950  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 071948  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0148 PM CST TUE NOV 07 2017  
 
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE COASTAL  
CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
   
..DISCUSSION
 
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING GENERAL THUNDER  
AREA. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS  
INTENSIFIED BRIEFLY EARLIER TODAY, VARIOUS RADAR AND LIGHTNING  
FIELDS HAVE SUGGESTED AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST  
SEVERAL HOURS. AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT, UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, OWING TO VEERED FLOW (AND RELATED WEAK  
CONVERGENCE) AND DRY AIR AROUND 700 MB.  
 
..PICCA.. 11/07/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 0951 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2017/  
   
..SOUTHEAST STATES
 
 
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO  
PARTS OF AL/GA/SC. ISOLATED CELLS ALONG THIS BAND HAVE PRODUCED  
LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. THE  
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS SIMILARLY FAVORABLE  
FOR GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, TRENDS IN RADAR/LIGHTNING/SATELLITE DATA  
AND 12Z CAM GUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTIVE  
INTENSITY WILL RISE TO SEVERE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 50 KNOTS, AND THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE  
ONGOING FORECAST OF LESS THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.  
 

 
 
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