786  
ACUS01 KWNS 091941  
SWODY1  
SPC AC 091940  
 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0140 PM CST THU NOV 09 2017  
 
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z  
   
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
 
 
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE U.S.  
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.  
   
..20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE
 
 
   
..SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
 
 
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING MID-LEVEL  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD STILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE NEAR/WEST THROUGH  
NORTH OF THE JACKSONVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA. INLAND OF THE COAST  
AREAS, THIS POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY AROUND  
00-01Z.  
   
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
 
 
ONE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WITHIN DEAMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING  
APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT COULD BEGIN TURNING EASTWARD  
INTO COASTAL AREAS TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. IT MAY BE PRECEDED BY A MORE  
SUBTLE WAVE OR TWO, WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT. INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR  
CONVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING PROBABLY WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE CASCADES, WHEN/WHERE ADDITIONAL  
INSOLATION BOOSTS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. AFTER DIMINISHING  
THIS EVENING, SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY OCCUR  
NEAR OREGON COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT, IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL  
COOLING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT.  
 
..KERR.. 11/09/2017  
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1020 AM CST THU NOV 09 2017/  
 
A RELATIVELY BENIGN CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS PRESENT ACROSS THE  
CONUS TODAY, WITH MOST AREAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY  
DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF GA/FL/SC, AS WELL AS ALONG THE  
COAST AND COASTAL RANGES OF WA/OR. IN BOTH AREAS, PARAMETERS APPEAR  
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab SPC Page Main Text Page