761  
FNUS21 KWNS 270731  
FWDDY1  
 
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0131 AM CST MON NOV 27 2017  
 
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FOUR  
CORNERS REGION TODAY, REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
AS THIS OCCURS, A LEE SURFACE LOW WILL ORGANIZE ALONG THE  
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER AND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN ACROSS THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VICINITY. AN APPRECIABLE DRY SECTOR WILL  
DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS, WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOIST  
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN  
KANSAS. LATE IN THE PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF  
NEVADA AND UTAH WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE OFFSHORE GRADIENT ACROSS  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL PERSIST WELL BEYOND  
THE D1/MONDAY FORECAST PERIOD.  
   
..A LARGE PART OF THE HIGH PLAINS
 
 
CONTAINED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED, EXPANSIVE DRY SECTOR,  
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF 12-25 MPH WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW  
WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS CONCURRENT WITH FALLING RH.  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF CRITICAL RH APPEAR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, ALTHOUGH IT ALSO APPEARS THAT ONLY LOCALIZED  
AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST OF SURFACE FLOW IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH THESE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES. THUS, AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
DELINEATION REMAIN IN PLACE - ALTHOUGH EXPANDED EASTWARD SOME INTO  
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE FLOW (20+ MPH) WILL  
COINCIDE WITH 20-30% RH VALUES.  
   
..EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
 
 
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO  
1) STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THIS REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH  
THE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND 2) A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL  
MIGRATE FROM SOUTHERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20-30 MPH SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME COMMON AS  
RH VALUES APPROACH (AND PERHAPS LOCALLY EXCEED) CRITICAL THRESHOLDS  
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CURRENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT ANY  
EXCEEDENCE OF CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS WILL BE BRIEF, ALTHOUGH RECENT  
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY  
LAYER IN THIS REGION. AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN WESTERN NEW  
MEXICO IF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT DRYING  
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND PRONOUNCED THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  
 
...SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND  
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...  
A SEPARATE AREA OF 15-25 MPH WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP DURING  
PEAK-HEATING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION  
FROM THE NORTH. THESE SURFACE WINDS WILL EXIST AMIDST FALLING  
AFTERNOON RH - GENERALLY AROUND 16-20% IN MOST AREAS. THE ELEVATED  
DELINEATION HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS  
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE BREEZY, DRY CONDITIONS EXTENDING INTO  
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND VICINITY BY MID-AFTERNOON.  
   
..COASTAL RANGES OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
 
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN  
EARNEST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS - GENERALLY COINCIDING  
WITH COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RISING RH VALUES.  
NEVERTHELESS, TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 MPH  
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WHICH  
WILL COINCIDE WITH 20-30% RH VALUES AND CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE  
WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
..COOK.. 11/27/2017  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
 
 

 
 
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